The Austin metro area was the fastest-growing large metro in the country every year this last decade and continues to lead growth into the new decade. In 2022, the five-county region making up the Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown metropolitan area is estimated at 2.35 million residents. Much of the growth in the metro area stems from incredibly fast growth in Central Texas cities. In 2021, the top three fastest growing cities in the country were all in the Austin metro area, with Kyle ranked first followed by Georgetown and Leander. In the past, these cities grew fast but had small base populations, resulting in smaller numeric increases. However, more recently, these fast-growing cities are also leading in total numeric growth. For instance, between 2020 and 2021 Georgetown saw the 10th largest numeric growth in the country, and Leander saw the 12th largest numeric increase. These cities are growing ten times faster than Austin and nearly five times faster than the metro area.

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Looking at population change between 2010 and 2020 across the region, the rapid growth in surrounding cities like Leander Cedar Park, Liberty Hill, Hutto, and Bee Cave is evident. Within the city areas of rapid growth can be found in many Imagine Austin centers, where increased density is a goal. For instance, the Imagine Austin Center Lakeline Station includes the most populous census tract in the city, located in the Lakeline, Avery Ranch area in the northwest portion of the city. The Harris Branch area, a hub for Imagine Austin centers Dessau/Parmer, Harris Branch, and Cameron/Wells Branch, also saw high population growth. The areas with the fastest growth can be found in the Mueller development and the Tech Ridge area. Increased housing generally followed population growth patterns. The areas that added the most housing between 2010 and 2020 were the Domain, followed by Lakeline, Avery Ranch, and the Slaughter Creek area south of FM 1626.

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Race and Ethnicity

Areas with increased housing development and population growth also experienced racial and ethnic demographic shifts. Nearly 60 percent of areas with the greatest development, adding over 1000 units during the decade, saw increased diversity in their racial/ethnic composition. These areas were dispersed around the city, but for the exception of the Domain and West Campus areas, most of the diverse growth took place in outer lying parts of the city, such as northeast Austin around Tech Ridge and Harris Branch, northwest Austin around Lakeline, far east Austin and north of the Austin Bergstrom Airport, far south and southwest Austin, spanning from Bluff Springs to Onion Creek and around to Circle C and Oak Hill.

 

About 30 percent of these areas were also areas with significant growth among the Asian population. In addition to substantial growth in the Circle C, West Campus, and Domain areas, the Asian population also saw significant growth in northwest and northeast parts of the city.

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The remaining 40 percent of areas with greatest development also experienced population growth but mostly among non-Hispanic Whites, particularly in areas of the central city such as Downtown, Seaholm, W. 5th, and more outlying areas like Crestview, Mueller, Oak Hill, and Lakeline. Similar growth patterns were seen in the Riverside, Holly, and Highland areas, but this growth was also coupled with declines in the Hispanic population. The Riverside area experienced one of the greatest shifts in racial makeup this decade, shifting from about 22 percent non-Hispanic White in 2010 to 63 percent in 2020, whereas the Hispanic population dropped from 68 percent to 22 percent during the same time. Similarly in the Holly neighborhood, Hispanics made up 72 percent of the population in 2010 and non-Hispanic Whites made up 19 percent. By 2020, the Hispanic population share had declined to 37 percent while the non-Hispanic White share had increased to 48 percent.

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Another area of significant development paired with racial/ethnic shifts is the Chestnut neighborhood in East Austin, where the Black population made up nearly a quarter of the population in 2010 and now makes up less than less than 9 percent, whereas the non-Hispanic White population has increased from 43 percent to nearly 60 percent in 2020.

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Economic Opportunity and Affordability

Although Austin now makes up a smaller share of population growth in the region, the city continues to employ the large majority of workers in the metro area. Of the 1.1 million jobs in the Austin metro area, over two-thirds, or 734 thousand, are jobs in the city of Austin. As cities within the region continue to experience explosive growth, the city of Austin will likely remain the primary employer for the region, although future updates to the jobs forecast will need to closely monitor emerging employment centers in other parts of the region, such as Taylor and Del Valle.

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Also, important to the trend of Austin’s declining share of regional growth will be affordability, primarily housing affordability. Even as concerns over the pandemic waned, Austinites saw concerning increases in median home prices, rising to record levels in late 2020 through the Spring of 2022. The median price of a home when Imagine Austin was implemented in 2012 was about $230,000 (Texas A&M Real Estate Center Housing Activity, 2022). In July 2022, the median home price had nearly tripled to $633,000 (Austin Board of Realtors Housing Market Report, July 2022). Increases in the housing market have seeped into the rental market, with some estimating Austin’s rents to have more than doubled between 2021 and 2022 (Rent.com Rent Report, July 2022).  

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Inflation mitigation efforts from the federal reserve have brought on higher mortgage rates, lowering demand and helping to stabilize housing prices. However, these same efforts could work to further widen homeownership gaps for many first-time home buyers, especially those of color, or lead to out migration by these families as they seek more affordable housing in other parts of the region. As home prices have started to stabilize, affordability, largely driven by inflation concerns driving up gas, food, and transportation costs, continues to be a major concern for the residents of Austin. These economic pressures and how wages can keep up could also contribute to the population growth, as well as its distribution throughout the region, we may see in the future.

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